Caterpillar: Expect Good Earnings, Improved Outlook, Barclays Says

Barclays’ Andy Kaplowitz and team are feeling optimistic about Caterpillar’s (CAT) chances heading into its second-quarter earnings on July 24 despite heightened optimism:

Bloomberg

2Q14 Machinery results are likely to reflect what we view as a still mixed but improving macroeconomic environment that we think could support pockets of strength in Machinery end markets. In particular, we think both North American truck and North American energy markets continue to improve while global construction markets look supportive of continued solid/better-than-expected results (mostly from improved margin) in Caterpillar’s Construction segment. Solid truck, energy and construction markets seem supportive of earnings for Caterpillar as well as truck suppliers Cummins (CMI) and Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN)…

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Expectations for an EPS beat have risen, but Caterpillar seems well positioned into 2Q earnings, with solid oil and gas markets and gradually improving construction machinery demand supporting results. Despite 2014 consensus EPS slightly above Caterpillar’s guidance range, we expect Caterpillar to raise its outlook based on a stronger oil and gas market than expected, some improvement in global construction equipment markets, and significant margin leverage as markets begin to recover, although we do expect mining to remain a modest headwind on results.

Shares of Caterpillar have fallen 0.8% to $110.24 at 2:36 p.m. today, while Cummins has dropped 0.7% to $156.60 and Allison Transmission Holdings has declined 0.8% top $31.40.