Once upon a time you could predict the outcome of events by looking at the markets. That all changed and it turned out that the reason markets and bookmakers stopped acting as good indicators on the voters mood was that elections were being &a;lsquo;fixed&a;rsquo; by social media meddling.
By targeting swing voters with &a;rsquo;fake news&a;rsquo; elections that would have gone one way went another and mainstream polls didn&a;rsquo;t pick this up because it was only the tiny focal point of these campaigns that made the difference, which was invisible to the mass.
These series of upsets are clear and one of them is likely to be the Brexit vote.
You might say these tactic are no different than other political advertising which too are laced with lies and manipulation and that is in a way true. However, there is something very sinister about stalking individuals by using their social media footprint and then feeding them lies that play on their fears to get them to vote a certain way.
Once the penny dropped that this was going on the scandal of it shocked anybody who cares to fear the likes of Cambridge Analytics rigging elections.
The question now is, has this been stopped?
We are about to find out with Brexit.
The stock market seems to think we are in for a soft or no Brexit result. The book makers see no likelihood of a Hard Brexit.
&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-59637&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/investor/files/2019/03/ftsebrexit190319.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;The stock market doesn&s;t think we will have a Hard Brexit&q; data-height=&q;589&q; data-width=&q;900&q;&g; The stock market doesn&s;t think we will have a Hard Brexit
Here are the odds:
&l;/p&g;&l;div class=&q;table-wrapper&q;&g;&l;table&g;&l;tbody&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td width=&q;350&q;&g;Brexit second referendum&l;/td&g; &l;td width=&q;77&q;&g;5/2&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td width=&q;350&q;&g;Article 50 extension&l;/td&g; &l;td width=&q;77&q;&g;1/6 on&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td width=&q;350&q;&g;Hard Brexit&l;/td&g; &l;td width=&q;77&q;&g;5/1&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td width=&q;350&q;&g;Brexit date this year &a;ndash; even money&l;/td&g; &l;td width=&q;77&q;&g;50/50&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;tr&g;&l;td width=&q;350&q;&g;Second UK referendum and votes to remain&l;/td&g; &l;td width=&q;77&q;&g;4/1&l;/td&g; &l;/tr&g;&l;/tbody&g;&l;/table&g;&l;/div&g;
So the market says soft Brexit and so do the bookies.
The punters say, Article 50 extension, Brexit this year, no Hard Brexit and no second referendum.
Personally, I&a;rsquo;d take the second referendum bet and the Hard Brexit bet if I was a gambling man. The odds are good even if it doesn&a;rsquo;t turn out that way. Luckily for me I am not a betting man.
So if you believe in markets as oracles and then the stock market indication and the bookmaker odds turn out totally wrong, again, then we might rest easy that the political data-miners are not the reason the last election&a;rsquo;s results were such a surprise to the markets and oddsmakers.
If these informal pollsters get it right this time, as they used to before the sinister phenomena of social media data and &a;lsquo;fake news&a;rsquo; raised its ugly head, it&a;rsquo;s another warning that social media manipulation of public opinion and voting is very real. When it comes to polls if there are forces at work manipulating the vote away from the wisdom of the crowd to the benefit of those with the best data and algos then we are in great peril.
Of all the dangers to our freedom and democracy the perils of the covert manipulation of the public vote is the paramount danger.
&a;nbsp;
&l;em&g;Clem Chambers is the CEO of leading private investors Web site&l;/em&g;&l;span&g;&l;em&g;&a;nbsp;&l;/em&g;&l;/span&g;&l;a href=&q;http://www.advfn.com/&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;em&g;ADVFN.com&l;/em&g;&l;/a&g;&l;em&g; and author of &l;/em&g;&l;a href=&q;http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00R3ABO9G&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;Be Rich&l;/a&g;&l;em&g;, &l;/em&g;&l;a href=&q;http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00HCOUWS2&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;em&g;The Game in Wall Street&l;/em&g;&l;/a&g;&l;em&g; and&l;/em&g; &l;a href=&q;https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077D9ZZ7P&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;&l;em&g;Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginner&a;rsquo;s Guide&l;/em&g;&l;/a&g;&l;em&g;, out now in paperback and on the Kindle. &l;/em&g;
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